Foreign Policy Live

There’s little doubt that the conflict in Iran has hurt much of the world economy. But not Russia. Data suggests that the Kremlin has already made billions of dollars in additional oil revenue since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. But beyond just cash, how much will this change President Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy? And what does this mean for the fate of the war in Ukraine? Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins FP Live to explain how Russia is navigating a moment of particular global flux. Plus, Ravi offers his read on U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing. Christian Caryl: Vladimir Putin Is Much Weaker Than You Think Sean Wiswesser: Don’t Fall for Rumors of Putin’s Weakness Keith Johnson: Russia Is Making Bank on Trump’s Iran War Christian Caryl: How Ukraine Benefited From Trump’s Iran War Alexey Kovalev: Russia’s War Boom Masks an Economic Implosion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

While the conflict in Iran has dominated headlines in the last two months, accounts of ordinary life in the Islamic Republic are scarce. According to journalist Ali Hashem, who spent six weeks in Tehran and has visited several times in the last decade, life in the capital looks more normal than one might imagine. Shops and restaurants are largely open, and regular people seem to be rallying around the flag in the face of an external threat. And while the internet as we know it is shut down, an intranet of sorts—with access to local versions of Netflix, Uber, and WhatsApp—is allowing people a semblance of regular life. Hashem speaks with host Ravi Agrawal about his reporting from Iran. Ali Hashem: Iran Is More Unified Than Ever Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War Ali Hashem: Waiting for the War to End in Tehran Ali Hashem: Iran Is Becoming America’s Ukraine Ali Hashem: Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s time for another ask-me-anything edition of FP Live. This one takes on the war in Iran from many angles: the economic impact, regional balance of power, the longer-term global impact, and much else. Producer Dana Sherne puts audience questions to FP’s editor in chief Ravi Agrawal. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran Stephen M. Walt: The End of America’s Soft Power Amir Handjani: The Real Meaning of the UAE’s OPEC Exit Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer: Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is like a ticking time bomb for the global economy, disrupting the flow of energy and rippling through industries from agriculture to semiconductors. How bad could it get? The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global growth this year from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent in the best-case scenario and 2 percent in the worst case. What countries will be the most affected, and what can they do to protect themselves? Gita Gopinath, an economics professor at Harvard University who was formerly the first deputy managing director of the IMF, joins FP Live to discuss. IMF’s World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War Keith Johnson: Why Iran Isn’t Blinking Yet Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The extension of a fragile cease-fire in the Middle East has left the region with no clear path forward. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, which means the global energy crisis will get worse. But Tehran’s new leaders are suffering too. What is their plan? Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour joins FP Live to discuss the shifting state of the war. Plus, Ravi shares his read on how the war’s economic fallout is worst in Asia. Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War David Ignatius: Both Sides Want a Deal. Both Keep Acting As if They Don’t. Menahem Merhavy: The Man Who Represents Post-Clerical Iran Bobby Ghosh: Tehran Can’t Count on Hormuz Philip H. Gordon and Rebecca Lissner: The Strategic Aftershocks of Trump’s Iran War Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Iran war has become the most serious foreign-policy challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump in his second term. But does it reveal a larger point about U.S. power? Stephen M. Walt, a professor at Harvard University and Foreign Policy columnist, argues that it does and that the United States is increasingly acting like a rogue state. What damage will this cause, and what can countries do about it? Plus, Ravi offers his read on Hungary’s election and why it matters for the world. Thomas Carothers: Why Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party Lost Stephen M. Walt: The United States Has Become a Rogue State Foreign Affairs: Stephen M. Walt: The Predatory Hegemon Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Ushering In a More Transactional World Howard W. French: Trump’s Recipe for Accelerated U.S. Decline Pew Research Center: International Views of China Turn Slightly More Positive Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Trump administration’s plans in the Middle East are often criticized by those who say he shouldn’t have attacked Iran. But the White House is also facing flak from those who say that it didn’t go far enough. John Bolton is a longtime proponent of regime change in Iran. He served as national security advisor in the first Trump administration before falling out with the president. Bolton joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a debate. Plus, Ravi gives his read on the tenuous Middle East cease-fire. Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran New York Times: John Bolton: Finish the Job: How Trump Can Still Win in Iran Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War Raphael S. Cohen: Trump’s Iran War Is a Dilemma, Not a Debacle Eric Brewer: Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder Stephen Walt: America’s Pro-War Elites Must Be Held Accountable Rishi Iyengar: Trump’s Pivot to Pakistan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After news of a 14-day cease-fire in the middle east conflict, Ravi shares his initial thoughts and analysis. Plus, the rationale for attacking Iran revolved around security. How did the global narrative become about energy? Iran’s strongest weapon has turned out to be its ability to strangle the Strait of Hormuz, an important trade choke point. What does the return of energy as a weapon mean for the global economy? Meghan O’Sullivan, author of Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power, explains how countries need to think about their energy security. She is a professor at Harvard University and has previously served as deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan in the George W. Bush administration. Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran New York Times: How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran Amir Handjani: The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Foreign Affairs: Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan: The Return of the Energy Weapon Foreign Affairs: Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan: The Iran Shock And the Dangerous Allure of Energy Autarky Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters a second month of conflict, how is Tehran’s surviving leadership thinking about an endgame? And how will the conflict reshape geopolitics in the region? Ali Vaez has extensive contacts with Iranian lawmakers and sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss the regime’s options. Vaez is a project director at the International Crisis Group. Plus, Ravi’s Read on how the White House seems to be winning the battle but losing the war. Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran Robert A. Pape and Ali Vaez: The Iran War Has Escaped Its Authors Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas: What Iran Wants From the War Thomas Juneau: Get Ready for a Weaker but Nastier Iran Menahem Merhavy: Iran’s Civilizational Rhetoric Is Hollow Arash Reisinezhad: Iran’s Biggest Wartime Advantage is Geography Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crude and gas prices are soaring after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure amid war in the Middle East. How bad could the energy shock get and for how long? FP columnist Jason Bordoff sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss. Bordoff previously served in the Obama administration as a senior director for energy and climate change in the National Security Council. He is also the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Jason Bordoff and Erica Downs: How the Iran War Could Consolidate China’s Energy Dominance Keith Johnson: Iran Is Putting a ‘Toll Booth’ in the Strait of Hormuz Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Keith Johnson: Europe and the U.S. Still Haven’t Choked Off Russia’s Energy Riches Maisoon H. Kafafy: Empty Words Don’t Open Straits Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s widely accepted that the post-WWII order has changed, but the question remains—what comes next? Political scientist Hal Brands maps out three possible scenarios in a cover essay for Foreign Policy’s latest print issue and joins FP Live to discuss. Brands is a professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and the author of The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World. Hal Brands: Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World Emma Ashford: A Better Trans-Atlantic Relationship Is Entirely Possible Sarang Shidore: Can Middle Powers Gel? Suzanne Nossel: What Would an Abundance Foreign Policy Look Like? Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It’s no secret that democracy is in trouble. Studies show that a growing number of countries are less free, and polls suggest ordinary citizens are losing faith in their governments. What can be done to fix this? Hélène Landemore has a radical solution: to get rid of politicians and electoral politics and instead create assemblies of ordinary citizens. She explores this concept in her new book, Politics Without Politicians: The Case for Citizen Rule, and joins FP Live to interrogate the idea. Hélène Landemore: The Problem With Representative Democracy Nicholas Bequelin: The Age of Defensive Democracy Hélène Landemore: More Power to More People Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the war in Iran soon enters its third week, two experts join FP Live for a debate. Were the United States and Israel justified in attacking Iran? And will the war advance U.S. interests in the region, or set them back? Trita Parsi and Matthew Kroenig sit down with executive editor Dan Ephron to discuss. Parsi is the executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, and Kroenig is an FP columnist and a senior director at the Atlantic Council. Trita Parsi: Iran’s Despair Is U.S. Policy Matthew Kroenig: The Case for Destroying Iran’s Nuclear Program Now Matthew Kroenig: Why a Wider War with Iran Is Unlikely Matthew Kroenig: Trump Made History. Now the Iranian People Can, Too. Michael Hirsh: So This, Finally, Is the ‘Trump Doctrine’ John Haltiwanger: The Trump Administration’s Iran War Justifications Keep Changing Suzanne Nossel: It’s Time to Retire the Pottery Barn Rule Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the United States and Israel attack military facilities across Iran, Tehran has been retaliating. But it has attacked Gulf countries more than it has targeted Israel. Why? And how will the likes of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates respond? Will it shift their geopolitical alignment away from the United States? Regional experts Mina al-Oraibi, the editor in chief of the National, and Firas Maksad, a managing director at the Eurasia Group, join FP Live to share their perspectives. Khalid al-Jaber and Omar H. Rahman: Security Alliances With the U.S. Have Made Gulf States More Vulnerable David Petraeus and Clara Kaluderovic: The Drone Attrition Trap Macdonald Amoah, Morgan D. Bazilian, and Jahara Matisek: The First 36 Hours of War Consumed Over 3,000 U.S.-Israeli Munitions Firas Maksad: The Middle East Has Two New Rival Teams Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On Saturday, Israel and the United States struck Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran has been responding with volleys of missiles aimed at Israel—and also at several other countries in the region. How will the conflict end? How long can Tehran sustain this fight? Iran expert Vali Nasr joined Ravi Agrawal for an emergency episode that ran live on the afternoon of Monday, March 3. Daniel Byman: 6 Questions About Operation Epic Fury Barbara Slavin: Death Comes to the Dictator Ali Hashem: Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination Alireza Nader and Nik Kowsar: Khamenei Is Dead. Who’s In Charge of Iran? Amos C. Fox and Franz-Stefan Gady: Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Are Racing the Clock Anchal Vohra: Iran’s Proxies Are Out for Themselves for Now Emma Ashford: Trump Is Betraying His Base by Waging War on Iran Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As U.S. President Donald Trump considers a military strike on Iran, what are the options on his table? What will his military advisors recommend he should and shouldn’t do? David Petraeus has often been in the position of providing such advice to the White House, and he joins FP Live to explain what could happen in the coming days. Petraeus ran U.S. and allied forces in the Middle East as the head of Central Command (CENTCOM) and later ran the CIA. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on the fourth anniversary of the war in Ukraine. FP Contributors: Four Years of War in Europe Marc Lynch: Four Scenarios for a Postwar Iran Arash Reisinezhad and Arsham Reisinezhad: What War With Iran Would Look Like Ali Hashem: The United States Is Dangerously Misreading Iran Ali Hashem: Iran Dangerously Misunderstands Its Situation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. President Donald Trump’s China policy often seems deliberately ambiguous. Is that a virtue or a flaw? Kurt Campbell is a longtime China watcher who rose up to run Asia policy under the Biden administration. He was the original architect of the so-called “pivot to Asia” during the Obama administration. He joins FP Live to discuss Trump, former U.S. President Joe Biden, and the world’s most important bilateral relationship. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on Trump’s Board of Peace. ⁠Aaron David Miller: Billions in Pledges Expected for Trump’s Board of Peace but Doubts Persist⁠ ⁠Mira Rapp-Hooper and Ely Ratner: Washington’s Silence in Asia Is a Gift to Beijing⁠ ⁠New York Times: On China, Trump Is Rolling the Dice on America’s Future⁠ ⁠Foreign Affairs: The U.S.-China Crisis Waiting to Happen⁠ ⁠A. Wess Mitchell: The Grand Strategy Behind Trump’s Foreign Policy⁠ ⁠Craig Singleton: China Grapples with Trump’s Radical Use of Power⁠ ⁠Lili Pike: Did Biden Get China Right?⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is the age of nuclear nonproliferation over? There are certainly worrying signs. New START, the main nuclear treaty between the United States and Russia, recently expired. China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal. Talks to bring Iran back to the negotiating table seem to be at an impasse. And one increasingly hears about the possibility of South Korea or Japan going nuclear. What can the world do in response? Rafael Grossi, the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, sits down with Ravi Agrawal. Rebecca Lissner and Erin D. Dumbacher: The Pillars of the Global Nuclear Order Are Cracking Decker Eveleth: The Real Risk After New START Isn’t Arms Racing Fareed Zakaria: The Post-Cold War Nuclear Era Might Have Just Ended Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: An Oil Deal for Trump Can Mean a Nuclear Deal for Iran Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Pentagon’s policy chief Elbridge Colby recently called for a “NATO 3.0”, stating that the United States would “continue to provide the U.S. extended nuclear deterrent” to Europe, but when it came to most defense matters, Europe would need to “assume primary responsibility.” Colby is the undersecretary of war for policy and joins FP Live host Ravi Agrawal at the annual Munich Security Conference. And in part two of this podcast, Colby and Agrawal were joined by four other guests: Richard Marles, the deputy prime minister and defense minister of Australia; Judith Collins, the minister of defense of New Zealand; Toshimitsu Motegi, the foreign minister of Japan; and David van Weel, the foreign minister of the Netherlands. Plus, One Thing from Ravi on U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech at the Munich Security Conference. Listen to Munich Moments on Apple or Spotify. A transcript of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s 2025 speech at the Munich Security Conference. A transcript of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2026 speech at the Munich Security ConferenceA transcript of Colby’s interview with Ravi A collection of FP’s reporting and analysis from the Munich Security Conference Matthew Kroenig: Two Cheers for the National Security Strategy A. Wess Mitchell: The Grand Strategy Behind Trump’s Foreign Policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

U.S. tariffs have upended decades of trade policy, but new U.N. data shows that the economies suffering most are those that can least afford a setback. At the Munich Security Conference (MSC), FP’s Ravi Agrawal hosted a panel on the trade wars, with policymakers on the front lines of these economic changes: Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, the director-general of the World Trade Organization; Finnish President Alexander Stubb; German Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil; and U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis. Follow FP’s MSC coverage here. Wendy Cutler: How Countries Should Respond to Trump’s Tariffs Keith Johnson: Tariffs Have Hurt, Not Helped, the U.S. Economy Rishi Iyengar: EU Don’t Need U.S.? Ramon Pacheco Pardo and Robyn Klingler-Vidra: Middle Powers Don’t Have to Work Together to Get Ahead Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices